A new poll shows that President Donald Trump’s base of support is much weaker than he wants you to believe, NPR reports.
A Public Religion Research Institute poll set out to see how true Trump’s claim that he “could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody” and “wouldn’t lose any voters” really is.
Turns out, just 15 percent of voters say “there is almost nothing he could do to lose their support.”
Another 26 percent say they approve of what Trump is doing but could change their minds.
On the flip side, more than twice as many people say that “there is almost nothing he could do to win their support.”
Thirty-three percent of voters say they are solidly in opposition to Trump, while another 21 percent say they oppose him but could change their minds.
The percent of “strong” Trump supporters is similar to a Huffington Post/YouGov poll that showed his “strong” support at 14 percent in August.
The numbers vary heavily based on demographics. African-Americans are adamantly against Trump, with 60 percent saying there is nothing he could do to earn their support. Another 26 percent say they disapprove of the president may change their minds.
Women are another group with overwhelming opposition to Trump. Forty-one percent of women consider themselves “strong” Trump opponents, compared to just 24 percent of men.
White evangelical Protestants are Trump’s strongest supporters, with 30 percent saying there’s nothing he could do to lose their support. Twenty-four percent of white voters without a college degree also list themselves as “strong” Trump supporters.
The poll shows serious cracks in Trump’s Republican support, though. Though 84 percent of Republicans say they approve of the job he’s doing, 50 percent say that he could lose their support.
More so, 31 percent of Republicans already say that they would prefer to see another candidate as the party’s nominee in 2020. Just 63 percent say they would be happy with Trump as the Republican candidate next time around.
Among Republicans who did not back Trump in 2016, that number skyrockets to 60 percent who prefer to see a different candidate.
His soaring unpopularity is going to play a major role in the 2018 midterms as well, when Trump’s name won’t be on any ballots.
According to the poll, 44 percent of voters say they prefer any generic Democrat over any generic Republican, while 37 percent say they would back the Republican.
But it’s important to remember that gerrymandering and regional polarization is key in predicting future elections. Trump lost the popular vote by a record 2.9 million, yet still won the election because where the votes are cast matters more than how many.
According to USA Today, Democrats got nearly 6 million more votes in Congress in 2016 as well, but were unable to win enough seats to take back the majority.
Part of that is based on district gerrymandering, and the 2018 and 2020 state elections will decide who gets to redraw their states’ districts after the 2020 census, making it all the more important to vote to affect your options for the future, even if it means voting for an uninspiring candidate.